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Anápolis vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes — Serie D 2018

Anápolis
Anápolis
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
5/6/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Municipal Jonas Duarte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Anápolis72%
×Draw18%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Anápolis
2.17
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.64

Anápolis creates 239% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 15 away

creates per match

Anápolis
1.48
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.73

allows per match

Anápolis
0.55
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.87

finishing

Anápolis+0.00on par
Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Anápolis ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Anápolis or draw
90%
Anápolis or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
82%
Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
28%

Winning margin

Anápolis wins by 2+
48%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Anápolis 1+ goals
89%
Anápolis 2+ goals
64%
Anápolis 3+ goals
36%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
47%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
14%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Anápolis (draw refunded)
88%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Anápolis at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.55 · 29 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Anápolis attack 1.48 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.17

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + Anápolis defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Anápolis scores more
72%
level
18%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
10%

Anápolis at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Anápolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Anápolis vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes

Anápolis beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1-0 in Serie D on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jonas Duarte in Anápolis, Goiás.