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Real de Banjul vs PSV Wellingara — GFA League 2020

Real de Banjul
Real de Banjul
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
PSV Wellingara
PSV Wellingara
5/11/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real de Banjul49%
×Draw29%
PSV Wellingara22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real de Banjul
1.28
PSV Wellingara
0.74

Real de Banjul creates 73% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 15 away

creates per match

Real de Banjul
1.64
PSV Wellingara
0.67

allows per match

Real de Banjul
0.80
PSV Wellingara
0.93

finishing

Real de Banjul+0.00on par
PSV Wellingara+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real de Banjul ↓

PSV Wellingara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Real de Banjul or draw
78%
Real de Banjul or PSV Wellingara
71%
Draw or PSV Wellingara
51%

Winning margin

Real de Banjul wins by 2+
23%
PSV Wellingara wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Real de Banjul 1+ goals
72%
Real de Banjul 2+ goals
37%
Real de Banjul 3+ goals
14%
PSV Wellingara 1+ goals
52%
PSV Wellingara 2+ goals
17%
PSV Wellingara 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Real de Banjul (draw refunded)
70%
PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real de Banjul at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.80 · 88 matches

PSV Wellingara away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real de Banjul attack 1.64 + PSV Wellingara defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

PSV Wellingara attack 0.67 + Real de Banjul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real de Banjul scores more
49%
level
29%
PSV Wellingara scores more
22%

Real de Banjul at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real de Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Real de Banjul 1–0 PSV Wellingara

Real de Banjul beat PSV Wellingara 1-0 in GFA League on May 11, 2023.