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PSV Wellingara vs Real de Banjul — GFA League 2020

PSV Wellingara
PSV Wellingara
FT
0 – 1
Real de Banjul
Real de Banjul
1/19/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PSV Wellingara20%
×Draw25%
Real de Banjul55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Wellingara
0.84
Real de Banjul
1.57

Real de Banjul creates 87% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 88 away

creates per match

PSV Wellingara
1.00
Real de Banjul
1.15

allows per match

PSV Wellingara
2.00
Real de Banjul
0.68

finishing

PSV Wellingara+0.00on par
Real de Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Wellingara ↓

Real de Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

PSV Wellingara or draw
45%
PSV Wellingara or Real de Banjul
75%
Draw or Real de Banjul
80%

Winning margin

PSV Wellingara wins by 2+
6%
Real de Banjul wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

PSV Wellingara 1+ goals
57%
PSV Wellingara 2+ goals
21%
PSV Wellingara 3+ goals
5%
Real de Banjul 1+ goals
79%
Real de Banjul 2+ goals
46%
Real de Banjul 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)
27%
Real de Banjul (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Wellingara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Real de Banjul away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Wellingara attack 1.00 + Real de Banjul defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.84

Real de Banjul attack 1.15 + PSV Wellingara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

PSV Wellingara scores more
20%
level
25%
Real de Banjul scores more
55%

Real de Banjul at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Real de Banjul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSV Wellingara vs Real de Banjul

Real de Banjul beat PSV Wellingara 1-0 in GFA League on January 19, 2023.