Real Cartagena 1–1 Popayan: Result & Stats

Real Cartagena

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Popayan

11/1/2025

Primera B · Clausura - Quadrangular - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Real Cartagena53%

×Draw25%

Popayan23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CartagenaExpected goals in this matchPopayan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.96

Real Cartagena

1.61

Popayan

0.96

Real Cartagena creates 68% more chances

Season form · 163 home / 130 away

1.68

creates per match

0.86

1.06

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Real Cartagena

1.68

Popayan

0.86

allows per match

Real Cartagena

1.06

Popayan

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Popayan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

Popayan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw

77%

Real Cartagena or Popayan

75%

Draw or Popayan

47%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+

28%

Popayan wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals

80%

Real Cartagena 2+ goals

48%

Real Cartagena 3+ goals

22%

Popayan 1+ goals

62%

Popayan 2+ goals

25%

Popayan 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)

70%

Popayan (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.06 · 163 matches

Popayan away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.54 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 1.68 + Popayan defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Popayan attack 0.86 + Real Cartagena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Real Cartagena scores more

53%

level

25%

Popayan scores more

23%

Real Cartagena at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff