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Popayan vs Real Cartagena — Primera B 2018

Popayan
Popayan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
11/24/2025Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - Quadrangular 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Popayan39%
×Draw29%
Real Cartagena31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Popayan
1.17
Real Cartagena
1.01

Popayan creates 16% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 162 away

creates per match

Popayan
0.99
Real Cartagena
0.93

allows per match

Popayan
1.08
Real Cartagena
1.34

finishing

Popayan+0.00on par
Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Popayan ↓

Real Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Popayan or draw
69%
Popayan or Real Cartagena
71%
Draw or Real Cartagena
61%

Winning margin

Popayan wins by 2+
17%
Real Cartagena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Popayan 1+ goals
69%
Popayan 2+ goals
33%
Popayan 3+ goals
11%
Real Cartagena 1+ goals
64%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
27%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Popayan (draw refunded)
56%
Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Popayan at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 129 matches

Real Cartagena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.34 · 162 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Popayan attack 0.99 + Real Cartagena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Real Cartagena attack 0.93 + Popayan defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Popayan scores more
39%
level
29%
Real Cartagena scores more
31%

Popayan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Popayan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Popayan vs Real Cartagena

Popayan and Real Cartagena drew 0-0 in Primera B on November 24, 2025.