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Real Cartagena vs Leones FC — Primera B 2018

Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Leones FC
Leones FC
8/18/2025Primera BPrimera B · Clausura - 3Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Real Cartagena49%
×Draw24%
Leones FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Cartagena
1.69
Leones FC
1.18

Real Cartagena creates 43% more chances

Season form · 163 home / 127 away

creates per match

Real Cartagena
1.68
Leones FC
1.29

allows per match

Real Cartagena
1.06
Leones FC
1.69

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par
Leones FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

Leones FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw
73%
Real Cartagena or Leones FC
76%
Draw or Leones FC
51%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+
26%
Leones FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals
82%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
50%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
24%
Leones FC 1+ goals
69%
Leones FC 2+ goals
33%
Leones FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
65%
Leones FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.06 · 163 matches

Leones FC away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.69 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 1.68 + Leones FC defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.69

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Real Cartagena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Cartagena scores more
49%
level
24%
Leones FC scores more
27%

Real Cartagena at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Cartagena vs Leones FC

Real Cartagena beat Leones FC 4-0 in Primera B on August 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León in Cartagena.