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Leones FC vs Real Cartagena — Primera B 2018

Leones FC
Leones FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
4/20/2024Primera BPrimera B · Apertura - 12Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Leones FC45%
×Draw28%
Real Cartagena27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leones FC
1.31
Real Cartagena
0.94

Leones FC creates 39% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 162 away

creates per match

Leones FC
1.29
Real Cartagena
0.93

allows per match

Leones FC
0.94
Real Cartagena
1.34

finishing

Leones FC+0.00on par
Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leones FC ↓

Real Cartagena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Leones FC or draw
73%
Leones FC or Real Cartagena
72%
Draw or Real Cartagena
55%

Winning margin

Leones FC wins by 2+
21%
Real Cartagena wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leones FC 1+ goals
73%
Leones FC 2+ goals
38%
Leones FC 3+ goals
14%
Real Cartagena 1+ goals
61%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
24%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Leones FC (draw refunded)
63%
Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leones FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 126 matches

Real Cartagena away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.34 · 162 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leones FC attack 1.29 + Real Cartagena defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Real Cartagena attack 0.93 + Leones FC defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leones FC scores more
45%
level
28%
Real Cartagena scores more
27%

Leones FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leones FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Leones FC vs Real Cartagena

Leones FC and Real Cartagena drew 0-0 in Primera B on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí in Itagüí.