Real Cartagena 3–4 Jaguares: Result & Stats

Real Cartagena

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Jaguares

I. Pereira 84'

J. Ramirez 53'

J. Rodriguez 9'

J. Andrade 90' (pen)

J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta 76'

A. Renteria 67'

A. Escobar 45'

6/2/2025

Primera B · Apertura - Quadrangular - 3Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Real Cartagena38%

×Draw26%

Jaguares35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CartagenaExpected goals in this matchJaguares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.27

Real Cartagena

1.34

Jaguares

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 152 home / 23 away

1.68

creates per match

1.48

1.06

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Real Cartagena

1.68

Jaguares

1.48

allows per match

Real Cartagena

1.06

Jaguares

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Jaguares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

Jaguares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw

65%

Real Cartagena or Jaguares

74%

Draw or Jaguares

62%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+

17%

Jaguares wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals

74%

Real Cartagena 2+ goals

39%

Real Cartagena 3+ goals

15%

Jaguares 1+ goals

72%

Jaguares 2+ goals

36%

Jaguares 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)

52%

Jaguares (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.06 · 152 matches

Jaguares away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 1.68 + Jaguares defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Jaguares attack 1.48 + Real Cartagena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Cartagena scores more

38%

level

26%

Jaguares scores more

35%

Real Cartagena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

11'

22'

25'

45'

53'

63'

64'

64'

D. Rodriguez Urango← A. Escobar

64'

D. Ceter← J. Viveros

66'

M. Murillo← J. Ramirez

67'

A. Renteria

72'

Y. Torres← J. Rodriguez

72'

J. Mendoza← C. Paternina

76'

J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta

77'

J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta

79'

Y. Torres

82'

I. Pereira← A. Rodriguez

82'

J. Andrade← A. Renteria

84'

I. Pereira

90+2'

J. Lovera← K. Lenis

90'

J. AndradePenalty

Real

Jaguares

1

Figueroa

4

Mosquera

23

Lora

30

⚽

Arrieta

17

▼

Viveros

14

▼

Pino

25

Roa

6

⚽

▼

Escobar

15

Maza

11

⚽

▼

Renteria

60

▼

Lenis

23

Mosquera

28

▼

4

5

14

17

21

⚽

▼

Rodriguez

13

⚽

▼

Ramirez

10

Montero

93

▼

Rodriguez

7

Rosa

Manager: M. Cardetti

66'▲M. Murillo←▼J. Ramirez

72'▲Y. Torres←▼J. Rodriguez

72'▲J. Mendoza←▼C. Paternina

82'▲I. Pereira←▼A. Rodriguez

Real Cartagena substitutes

22Fontalvo2Barrios6Torres24Mendoza11Pereira27Salcedo29Murillo

Manager: A. Hernández

64'▲D. Padilla←▼D. Pino

64'▲D. Rodriguez Urango←▼A. Escobar

64'▲D. Ceter←▼J. Viveros

82'▲J. Andrade←▼A. Renteria

90+2'▲J. Lovera←▼K. Lenis

Jaguares substitutes

12Arroyo5Lovera26Padilla20Andrade10Urango7Herrera24Ceter