Jaguares 2–1 Real Cartagena: Result & Stats

Jaguares

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Real Cartagena

A. Renteria 90' (pen), 59'

F. Montero 15'

9/29/2025

Primera B · Clausura - 12Estadio Municipal de Futbol de Monteria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Jaguares57%

×Draw25%

Real Cartagena18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JaguaresExpected goals in this matchReal Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.76

Jaguares

1.58

Real Cartagena

0.76

Jaguares creates 108% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 152 away

1.78

creates per match

0.91

0.61

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Jaguares

1.78

Real Cartagena

0.91

allows per match

Jaguares

0.61

Real Cartagena

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jaguares+0.00on par

Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jaguares ↓

Real Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jaguares or draw

82%

Jaguares or Real Cartagena

75%

Draw or Real Cartagena

43%

Winning margin

Jaguares wins by 2+

30%

Real Cartagena wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Jaguares 1+ goals

79%

Jaguares 2+ goals

47%

Jaguares 3+ goals

21%

Real Cartagena 1+ goals

53%

Real Cartagena 2+ goals

18%

Real Cartagena 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Jaguares (draw refunded)

76%

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jaguares at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Real Cartagena away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jaguares attack 1.78 + Real Cartagena defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.58

Real Cartagena attack 0.91 + Jaguares defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jaguares scores more

57%

level

25%

Real Cartagena scores more

18%

Jaguares at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jaguares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

15'

39'

39'

45'

45+1'

J. A. Altamiranda Arrieta

52'

56'

58'

59'

64'

65'

J. Andrade← A. Escobar

65'

J. Leudo← J. Rodriguez

65'

J. J. Ditta Ruiz← W. De La Rosa

71'

J. Mejia← J. Roa

72'

D. Padilla← J. Viveros

76'

J. Leudo

76'

D. Mosquera← C. Marrugo

76'

J. Nieva← F. Acosta

79'

C. Ramirez

83'

B. D. Palacios← D. Pino

83'

D. Ceter← J. Herrera

90'

A. RenteriaPenalty

Jaguares

Real

33

14

19

88

24

8

▼

Acosta

21

▼

Rodriguez

17

▼

Marrugo

7

▼

Rosa

97

Melendez

10

⚽

▼

1

30

4

5

6

▼

Escobar

25

▼

Roa

14

▼

Pino

7

▼

Herrera

17

▼

Viveros

15

Maza

11

⚽2

Renteria

Manager: A. Hernández

65'▲J. Andrade←▼A. Escobar

71'▲J. Mejia←▼J. Roa

72'▲D. Padilla←▼J. Viveros

83'▲B. D. Palacios←▼D. Pino

83'▲D. Ceter←▼J. Herrera

Jaguares substitutes

33Tovar31Barrios26Padilla19Palacios24Ceter13Gutierrez3Bueno20Andrade28Mejia

Manager: M. Cardetti

52'▲S. Gomez←▼F. Montero

65'▲J. Leudo←▼J. Rodriguez

65'▲J. J. Ditta Ruiz←▼W. De La Rosa

76'▲D. Mosquera←▼C. Marrugo

76'▲J. Nieva←▼F. Acosta

Real Cartagena substitutes

1Montes25Vergara2Pedrosa6Leudo27Mosquera20Nieva31Tamayo18Ruiz9Gomez

Match Recap: Jaguares vs Real Cartagena

Jaguares beat Real Cartagena 2-1 in Primera B on September 29, 2025.

Goals: F. Montero (15'), A. Renteria (59', 90' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Futbol de Monteria in Monteria.

Jaguares vs Real Cartagena — Primera B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jaguares vs Real Cartagena