Real Cartagena 2–3 Envigado: Result & Stats

Real Cartagena

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Envigado

F. Montero 48', 43'

M. Marulanda 68', 61' (pen), 34'

5/26/2026

Primera B · Apertura - Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Real Cartagena37%

×Draw25%

Envigado38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CartagenaExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.45

Real Cartagena

1.43

Envigado

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 162 home / 12 away

1.69

creates per match

1.83

1.06

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Real Cartagena

1.69

Envigado

1.83

allows per match

Real Cartagena

1.06

Envigado

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw

62%

Real Cartagena or Envigado

75%

Draw or Envigado

63%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+

17%

Envigado wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals

76%

Real Cartagena 2+ goals

42%

Real Cartagena 3+ goals

17%

Envigado 1+ goals

77%

Envigado 2+ goals

42%

Envigado 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)

49%

Envigado (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.06 · 162 matches

Envigado away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 1.69 + Envigado defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.43

Envigado attack 1.83 + Real Cartagena defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Real Cartagena scores more

37%

level

25%

Envigado scores more

38%

Envigado at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Envigado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

34'

A. Melendez← C. Graciano

34'

M. Marulanda

43'

F. Montero

48'

F. Montero

61'

M. MarulandaPenalty

67'

R. C. Espana Alvarez← S. Acuna

68'

M. Marulanda

69'

J. Rodriguez← L. Guevara

69'

M. Manotas← J. Herrera

77'

J. Hernandez← M. Marulanda

77'

D. A. Valencia Mosquera← L. Diaz

81'

J. Nieva← D. Pino

82'

83'

85'

J. Catano← E. Lopez

90+6'

Real

Envigado

88

15

5

28

14

21

▼

Lopez

80

Aristizab

6

Palacio

34

▼

Diaz

9

⚽3

▼

Marulanda

19

▼

Acuna

22

Tovar

26

▼

23

24

6

14

▼

Pino

7

Barrera

8

▼

Guevara

30

▼

Herrera

17

Aleman

10

⚽2

Montero

Manager: Alvaro Hernandez

34'▲A. Melendez←▼C. Graciano

69'▲J. Rodriguez←▼L. Guevara

69'▲M. Manotas←▼J. Herrera

81'▲J. Nieva←▼D. Pino

Real Cartagena substitutes

1Montes15Florez21Rodriguez5Espana20Nieva27Melendez11Yanes29Tamayo9Manotas

Manager: Andres Orozco

67'▲R. C. Espana Alvarez←▼S. Acuna

77'▲J. Hernandez←▼M. Marulanda

77'▲D. A. Valencia Mosquera←▼L. Diaz

85'▲J. Catano←▼E. Lopez

Envigado substitutes

22Mendoza17Zapata8Alvarez20Catano23Hernandez11Hurtado33Londono26Mosquera7Dawson