Real Cartagena 2–1 Envigado: Result & Stats

Real Cartagena

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Envigado

J. Salcedo 73'

M. Murillo 32'

J. Cuesta 45+3'

8/30/2024

Copa Colombia · 3rd RoundEstadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Real Cartagena51%

×Draw24%

Envigado25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CartagenaExpected goals in this matchEnvigado

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.13

Real Cartagena

1.73

Envigado

1.13

Real Cartagena creates 53% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

2.33

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Real Cartagena

2.33

Envigado

1.25

allows per match

Real Cartagena

1.00

Envigado

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Envigado+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

Envigado →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw

75%

Real Cartagena or Envigado

76%

Draw or Envigado

49%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+

28%

Envigado wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals

82%

Real Cartagena 2+ goals

52%

Real Cartagena 3+ goals

25%

Envigado 1+ goals

68%

Envigado 2+ goals

31%

Envigado 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)

67%

Envigado (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Envigado away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 2.33 + Envigado defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Envigado attack 1.25 + Real Cartagena defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Cartagena scores more

51%

level

24%

Envigado scores more

25%

Real Cartagena at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

D. Palacios← C. Ramírez

32'

45+3'

46'

66'

67'

72'

D. Tobar← J. Espinosa

73'

J. Salcedo

77'

J. Valencia← M. Murillo

83'

W. Hurtado← J. Cuesta

86'

M. Castillo← C. Paternina

Real

Envigado

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

Manager: A. Viera

72'▲D. Tobar←▼J. Espinosa

77'▲J. Valencia←▼M. Murillo

86'▲M. Castillo←▼C. Paternina

Real Cartagena substitutes

TobarValenciaCastilloArtolaCoveaLópezBenavides

Manager: A. Márquez

13'▲D. Palacios←▼C. Ramírez

46'▲G. Cuervo←▼E. López

66'▲D. Arcila←▼K. Tamayo

67'▲Y. Moreno←▼B. Garcés

83'▲W. Hurtado←▼J. Cuesta

Envigado substitutes

PalaciosCuervoArcilaMorenoHurtadoParraDíaz

Copa Colombia: Real Cartagena 2–1 Envigado

Real Cartagena beat Envigado 2-1 in Copa Colombia on August 30, 2024.

Goals: M. Murillo (32'), J. Cuesta (45+3'), J. Salcedo (73').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León in Cartagena de Indias.

Real Cartagena vs Envigado — Copa Colombia 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Copa Colombia: Real Cartagena 2–1 Envigado