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Real Cartagena vs Cortulua — Copa Colombia 2019

Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cortulua
Cortulua
3/30/2023Copa ColombiaCopa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Real Cartagena54%
×Draw28%
Cortulua18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Cartagena
1.37
Cortulua
0.67

Real Cartagena creates 104% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Real Cartagena
1.31
Cortulua
0.71

allows per match

Real Cartagena
0.62
Cortulua
1.43

finishing

Real Cartagena+0.00on par
Cortulua+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Cartagena ↓

Cortulua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Real Cartagena or draw
82%
Real Cartagena or Cortulua
72%
Draw or Cortulua
46%

Winning margin

Real Cartagena wins by 2+
26%
Cortulua wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Real Cartagena 1+ goals
75%
Real Cartagena 2+ goals
40%
Real Cartagena 3+ goals
16%
Cortulua 1+ goals
49%
Cortulua 2+ goals
15%
Cortulua 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)
75%
Cortulua (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Cartagena at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Cortulua away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Cartagena attack 1.31 + Cortulua defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

Cortulua attack 0.71 + Real Cartagena defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Cartagena scores more
54%
level
28%
Cortulua scores more
18%

Real Cartagena at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Colombia: Real Cartagena 2–1 Cortulua

Real Cartagena beat Cortulua 2-1 in Copa Colombia on March 30, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Jaime Morón León in Cartagena de Indias.