Cortulua 1–3 Real Cartagena: Result & Stats

Cortulua

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Real Cartagena

3/15/2023

Copa Colombia · 2nd RoundEstadio Raúl Miranda Yumbo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Cortulua34%

×Draw29%

Real Cartagena38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CortuluaExpected goals in this matchReal Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.15

Cortulua

1.07

Real Cartagena

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.86

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Cortulua

0.86

Real Cartagena

1.00

allows per match

Cortulua

1.29

Real Cartagena

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cortulua+0.00on par

Real Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cortulua ↓

Real Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Cortulua or draw

62%

Cortulua or Real Cartagena

71%

Draw or Real Cartagena

66%

Winning margin

Cortulua wins by 2+

13%

Real Cartagena wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Cortulua 1+ goals

66%

Cortulua 2+ goals

29%

Cortulua 3+ goals

9%

Real Cartagena 1+ goals

68%

Real Cartagena 2+ goals

32%

Real Cartagena 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Cortulua (draw refunded)

47%

Real Cartagena (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cortulua at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Real Cartagena away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cortulua attack 0.86 + Real Cartagena defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Real Cartagena attack 1.00 + Cortulua defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cortulua scores more

34%

level

29%

Real Cartagena scores more

38%

Real Cartagena at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff