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Real Calepina vs Mestre — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Real Calepina
Real Calepina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mestre
Mestre
4/12/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 35Campo Sportivo Comunale Libico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Calepina41%
×Draw29%
Mestre30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Calepina
1.20
Mestre
0.97

Real Calepina creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Real Calepina
1.21
Mestre
0.94

allows per match

Real Calepina
1.00
Mestre
1.19

finishing

Real Calepina+0.00on par
Mestre+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Calepina ↓

Mestre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Calepina or draw
70%
Real Calepina or Mestre
71%
Draw or Mestre
59%

Winning margin

Real Calepina wins by 2+
18%
Mestre wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Calepina 1+ goals
70%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
34%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
12%
Mestre 1+ goals
62%
Mestre 2+ goals
25%
Mestre 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Calepina (draw refunded)
58%
Mestre (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Calepina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Mestre away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.19 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Calepina attack 1.21 + Mestre defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mestre attack 0.94 + Real Calepina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Real Calepina scores more
41%
level
29%
Mestre scores more
30%

Real Calepina at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Real Calepina 1–0 Mestre

Real Calepina beat Mestre 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Libico in Grumello del Monte.