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Mestre vs Real Calepina — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Mestre
Mestre
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Calepina
Real Calepina
D. Marcandella 15'
M. D'Amuri 76' (pen)
12/1/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Stadio Francesco Baracca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mestre43%
×Draw27%
Real Calepina29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mestre
1.33
Real Calepina
1.05

Mestre creates 27% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mestre
1.34
Real Calepina
1.11

allows per match

Mestre
0.99
Real Calepina
1.32

finishing

Mestre+0.00on par
Real Calepina+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mestre ↓

Real Calepina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mestre or draw
71%
Mestre or Real Calepina
73%
Draw or Real Calepina
57%

Winning margin

Mestre wins by 2+
20%
Real Calepina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mestre 1+ goals
74%
Mestre 2+ goals
38%
Mestre 3+ goals
15%
Real Calepina 1+ goals
65%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
28%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mestre (draw refunded)
59%
Real Calepina (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mestre at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Real Calepina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mestre attack 1.34 + Real Calepina defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Real Calepina attack 1.11 + Mestre defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mestre scores more
43%
level
27%
Real Calepina scores more
29%

Mestre at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mestre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
D. Marcandella
75'
T. Mannucci
76'
M. D'AmuriPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Mestre 1–1 Real Calepina

Mestre and Real Calepina drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on December 1, 2024.

Goals: D. Marcandella (15'), M. D'Amuri (76' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Francesco Baracca in Mestre.