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Real Calepina vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Real Calepina
Real Calepina
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Luparense
Luparense
2/2/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 26Campo Sportivo Comunale Maselli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Calepina40%
×Draw28%
Luparense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Calepina
1.25
Luparense
1.10

Real Calepina creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

creates per match

Real Calepina
1.21
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

Real Calepina
1.00
Luparense
1.30

finishing

Real Calepina+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Calepina ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Calepina or draw
68%
Real Calepina or Luparense
72%
Draw or Luparense
60%

Winning margin

Real Calepina wins by 2+
17%
Luparense wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Calepina 1+ goals
71%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
36%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
13%
Luparense 1+ goals
67%
Luparense 2+ goals
30%
Luparense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Calepina (draw refunded)
55%
Luparense (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Calepina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Calepina attack 1.21 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Luparense attack 1.21 + Real Calepina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Calepina scores more
40%
level
28%
Luparense scores more
32%

Real Calepina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Real Calepina 3–2 Luparense

Real Calepina beat Luparense 3-2 in Serie D - Girone C on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Maselli in Adro.