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Luparense vs Real Calepina — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Luparense
Luparense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Calepina
Real Calepina
10/6/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 7Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Luparense46%
×Draw26%
Real Calepina27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luparense
1.45
Real Calepina
1.05

Luparense creates 38% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 19 away

creates per match

Luparense
1.58
Real Calepina
1.11

allows per match

Luparense
0.99
Real Calepina
1.32

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par
Real Calepina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

Real Calepina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Luparense or draw
73%
Luparense or Real Calepina
74%
Draw or Real Calepina
54%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+
23%
Real Calepina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals
77%
Luparense 2+ goals
42%
Luparense 3+ goals
18%
Real Calepina 1+ goals
65%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
28%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)
63%
Real Calepina (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

Real Calepina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + Real Calepina defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.45

Real Calepina attack 1.11 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Luparense scores more
46%
level
26%
Real Calepina scores more
27%

Luparense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Luparense 2–0 Real Calepina

Luparense beat Real Calepina 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée in San Martino di Lupari.