Real Calepina 4–1 Lavis: Result & Stats

Real Calepina

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Lavis

3/30/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 33Campo Sportivo Comunale Libico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Calepina65%

×Draw20%

Lavis14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CalepinaExpected goals in this matchLavis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.81

Real Calepina

2.02

Lavis

0.81

Real Calepina creates 149% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

0.63

1.00

allows per match

2.84

creates per match

Real Calepina

1.21

Lavis

0.63

allows per match

Real Calepina

1.00

Lavis

2.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Calepina+0.00on par

Lavis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Calepina ↓

Lavis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Calepina or draw

86%

Real Calepina or Lavis

80%

Draw or Lavis

35%

Winning margin

Real Calepina wins by 2+

41%

Lavis wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Real Calepina 1+ goals

87%

Real Calepina 2+ goals

60%

Real Calepina 3+ goals

33%

Lavis 1+ goals

56%

Lavis 2+ goals

19%

Lavis 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Real Calepina (draw refunded)

82%

Lavis (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Calepina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Lavis away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Calepina attack 1.21 + Lavis defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.02

Lavis attack 0.63 + Real Calepina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Real Calepina scores more

65%

level

20%

Lavis scores more

14%

Real Calepina at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff