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Lavis vs Real Calepina — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Lavis
Lavis
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Real Calepina
Real Calepina
11/17/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 14Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lavis25%
×Draw26%
Real Calepina50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lavis
1.00
Real Calepina
1.53

Real Calepina creates 53% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lavis
0.68
Real Calepina
1.11

allows per match

Lavis
1.95
Real Calepina
1.32

finishing

Lavis+0.00on par
Real Calepina+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lavis ↓

Real Calepina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lavis or draw
50%
Lavis or Real Calepina
74%
Draw or Real Calepina
75%

Winning margin

Lavis wins by 2+
9%
Real Calepina wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Lavis 1+ goals
63%
Lavis 2+ goals
26%
Lavis 3+ goals
8%
Real Calepina 1+ goals
78%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
45%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Lavis (draw refunded)
33%
Real Calepina (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lavis at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Real Calepina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lavis attack 0.68 + Real Calepina defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.00

Real Calepina attack 1.11 + Lavis defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lavis scores more
25%
level
26%
Real Calepina scores more
50%

Real Calepina at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lavis vs Real Calepina

Real Calepina beat Lavis 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Lavis in Lavis.