Real Calepina 1–1 Calvi Noale: Result & Stats

Real Calepina

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Calvi Noale

1/25/2025

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 24Campo Sportivo Comunale Maselli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Calepina40%

×Draw29%

Calvi Noale31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CalepinaExpected goals in this matchCalvi Noale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.02

Real Calepina

1.21

Calvi Noale

1.02

Real Calepina creates 19% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 36 away

1.21

creates per match

1.03

1.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Real Calepina

1.21

Calvi Noale

1.03

allows per match

Real Calepina

1.00

Calvi Noale

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Calepina+0.00on par

Calvi Noale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Calepina ↓

Calvi Noale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Real Calepina or draw

69%

Real Calepina or Calvi Noale

71%

Draw or Calvi Noale

60%

Winning margin

Real Calepina wins by 2+

17%

Calvi Noale wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Real Calepina 1+ goals

70%

Real Calepina 2+ goals

34%

Real Calepina 3+ goals

12%

Calvi Noale 1+ goals

64%

Calvi Noale 2+ goals

27%

Calvi Noale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Real Calepina (draw refunded)

57%

Calvi Noale (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Calepina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Calvi Noale away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Calepina attack 1.21 + Calvi Noale defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Calvi Noale attack 1.03 + Real Calepina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Calepina scores more

40%

level

29%

Calvi Noale scores more

31%

Real Calepina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff