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Calvi Noale vs Real Calepina — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Calvi Noale
Calvi Noale
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Real Calepina
Real Calepina
9/28/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 5Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calvi Noale41%
×Draw28%
Real Calepina32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvi Noale
1.29
Real Calepina
1.11

Calvi Noale creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

creates per match

Calvi Noale
1.25
Real Calepina
1.11

allows per match

Calvi Noale
1.11
Real Calepina
1.32

finishing

Calvi Noale+0.00on par
Real Calepina+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvi Noale ↓

Real Calepina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Calvi Noale or draw
68%
Calvi Noale or Real Calepina
72%
Draw or Real Calepina
59%

Winning margin

Calvi Noale wins by 2+
18%
Real Calepina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Calvi Noale 1+ goals
72%
Calvi Noale 2+ goals
37%
Calvi Noale 3+ goals
14%
Real Calepina 1+ goals
67%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
30%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Calvi Noale (draw refunded)
56%
Real Calepina (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvi Noale at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Real Calepina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvi Noale attack 1.25 + Real Calepina defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.29

Real Calepina attack 1.11 + Calvi Noale defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Calvi Noale scores more
41%
level
28%
Real Calepina scores more
32%

Calvi Noale at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Calvi Noale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Calvi Noale 2–0 Real Calepina

Calvi Noale beat Real Calepina 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia in Noale.