Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Calepina vs Bassano Virtus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Real Calepina
Real Calepina
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
3/9/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 31Campo Sportivo Comunale Libico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Calepina37%
×Draw31%
Bassano Virtus32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Calepina
1.06
Bassano Virtus
0.96

Real Calepina creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 53 away

creates per match

Real Calepina
1.21
Bassano Virtus
0.92

allows per match

Real Calepina
1.00
Bassano Virtus
0.92

finishing

Real Calepina+0.00on par
Bassano Virtus+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Calepina ↓

Bassano Virtus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Real Calepina or draw
68%
Real Calepina or Bassano Virtus
69%
Draw or Bassano Virtus
63%

Winning margin

Real Calepina wins by 2+
15%
Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Calepina 1+ goals
65%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
29%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
9%
Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
62%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
25%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Real Calepina (draw refunded)
54%
Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Calepina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Bassano Virtus away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Calepina attack 1.21 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Bassano Virtus attack 0.92 + Real Calepina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Calepina scores more
37%
level
31%
Bassano Virtus scores more
32%

Real Calepina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Calepina vs Bassano Virtus

Real Calepina beat Bassano Virtus 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Comunale Libico in Grumello del Monte.