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Bassano Virtus vs Real Calepina — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Bassano Virtus
Bassano Virtus
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Calepina
Real Calepina
11/3/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 12Stadio Rino Mercante

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bassano Virtus44%
×Draw28%
Real Calepina28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bassano Virtus
1.31
Real Calepina
0.97

Bassano Virtus creates 35% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bassano Virtus
1.30
Real Calepina
1.11

allows per match

Bassano Virtus
0.83
Real Calepina
1.32

finishing

Bassano Virtus+0.00on par
Real Calepina+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bassano Virtus ↓

Real Calepina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bassano Virtus or draw
72%
Bassano Virtus or Real Calepina
72%
Draw or Real Calepina
56%

Winning margin

Bassano Virtus wins by 2+
20%
Real Calepina wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bassano Virtus 1+ goals
73%
Bassano Virtus 2+ goals
38%
Bassano Virtus 3+ goals
14%
Real Calepina 1+ goals
62%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
25%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bassano Virtus (draw refunded)
62%
Real Calepina (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bassano Virtus at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.83 · 53 matches

Real Calepina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bassano Virtus attack 1.30 + Real Calepina defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Real Calepina attack 1.11 + Bassano Virtus defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bassano Virtus scores more
44%
level
28%
Real Calepina scores more
28%

Bassano Virtus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bassano Virtus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bassano Virtus vs Real Calepina

Bassano Virtus and Real Calepina drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Rino Mercante in Bassano del Grappa.