Real Calepina 1–2 Adriese: Result & Stats

Real Calepina

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Adriese

F. Concas 90+4'

J. Rossi 90+10'

S. Fyda 58'

10/19/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 9Campo Sportivo Comunale Libico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Real Calepina39%

×Draw27%

Adriese34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real CalepinaExpected goals in this matchAdriese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.18

Real Calepina

1.29

Adriese

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 101 away

1.21

creates per match

1.36

1.00

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Real Calepina

1.21

Adriese

1.36

allows per match

Real Calepina

1.00

Adriese

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Calepina+0.00on par

Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Calepina ↓

Adriese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Real Calepina or draw

66%

Real Calepina or Adriese

73%

Draw or Adriese

61%

Winning margin

Real Calepina wins by 2+

17%

Adriese wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Calepina 1+ goals

72%

Real Calepina 2+ goals

37%

Real Calepina 3+ goals

14%

Adriese 1+ goals

69%

Adriese 2+ goals

33%

Adriese 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Real Calepina (draw refunded)

54%

Adriese (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Calepina at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Calepina attack 1.21 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Adriese attack 1.36 + Real Calepina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Calepina scores more

39%

level

27%

Adriese scores more

34%

Real Calepina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Calepina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

S. Fyda

90+4'

F. Concas

90+10'

J. Rossi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff