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Adriese vs Real Calepina — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Adriese
Adriese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real Calepina
Real Calepina
2/16/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 28Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Adriese46%
×Draw26%
Real Calepina28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adriese
1.48
Real Calepina
1.09

Adriese creates 36% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 19 away

creates per match

Adriese
1.64
Real Calepina
1.11

allows per match

Adriese
1.07
Real Calepina
1.32

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par
Real Calepina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

Real Calepina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Adriese or draw
72%
Adriese or Real Calepina
74%
Draw or Real Calepina
54%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+
23%
Real Calepina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals
77%
Adriese 2+ goals
43%
Adriese 3+ goals
19%
Real Calepina 1+ goals
66%
Real Calepina 2+ goals
30%
Real Calepina 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)
62%
Real Calepina (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

Real Calepina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + Real Calepina defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.48

Real Calepina attack 1.11 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Adriese scores more
46%
level
26%
Real Calepina scores more
28%

Adriese at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Adriese 1–1 Real Calepina

Adriese and Real Calepina drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi in Adria.