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Real Burgos vs La Virgen del Camino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Burgos
Real Burgos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 26Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Burgos37%
×Draw28%
La Virgen del Camino36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Burgos
1.21
La Virgen del Camino
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 111 away

creates per match

Real Burgos
1.00
La Virgen del Camino
1.05

allows per match

Real Burgos
1.32
La Virgen del Camino
1.43

finishing

Real Burgos+0.00on par
La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Burgos ↓

La Virgen del Camino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Burgos or draw
64%
Real Burgos or La Virgen del Camino
72%
Draw or La Virgen del Camino
63%

Winning margin

Real Burgos wins by 2+
16%
La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Real Burgos 1+ goals
70%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
34%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
12%
La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
70%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
33%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Burgos (draw refunded)
51%
La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Burgos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

La Virgen del Camino away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + La Virgen del Camino defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.05 + Real Burgos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Real Burgos scores more
37%
level
28%
La Virgen del Camino scores more
36%

Real Burgos at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Burgos vs La Virgen del Camino

Real Burgos beat La Virgen del Camino 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.