La Virgen del Camino 0–2 Real Burgos

La Virgen del Camino

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Burgos

9/14/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 5Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Virgen del Camino49%

×Draw26%

Real Burgos24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La Virgen del CaminoExpected goals in this matchReal Burgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.97

La Virgen del Camino

1.50

Real Burgos

0.97

La Virgen del Camino creates 55% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 30 away

1.10

creates per match

1.00

0.93

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino

1.10

Real Burgos

1.00

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino

0.93

Real Burgos

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par

Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Real Burgos →

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw

76%

La Virgen del Camino or Real Burgos

74%

Draw or Real Burgos

51%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+

25%

Real Burgos wins by 2+

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals

78%

La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals

44%

La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals

19%

Real Burgos 1+ goals

62%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

25%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)

67%

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more

49%

level

26%

Real Burgos scores more

24%

La Virgen del Camino at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Virgen del Camino 0–2 Real Burgos

Real Burgos beat La Virgen del Camino 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.

La Virgen del Camino vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Virgen del Camino 0–2 Real Burgos