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Real Burgos vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Burgos
Real Burgos
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
La Granja
La Granja
1/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 14Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Burgos51%
×Draw25%
La Granja24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Burgos
1.59
La Granja
1.00

Real Burgos creates 59% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Real Burgos
1.00
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

Real Burgos
1.32
La Granja
2.19

finishing

Real Burgos+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Burgos ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Real Burgos or draw
76%
Real Burgos or La Granja
75%
Draw or La Granja
49%

Winning margin

Real Burgos wins by 2+
27%
La Granja wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Burgos 1+ goals
80%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
47%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
21%
La Granja 1+ goals
63%
La Granja 2+ goals
26%
La Granja 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Real Burgos (draw refunded)
68%
La Granja (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Burgos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.59

La Granja attack 0.68 + Real Burgos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Real Burgos scores more
51%
level
25%
La Granja scores more
24%

Real Burgos at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Real Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Burgos vs La Granja

Real Burgos and La Granja drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.