La Granja 1–2 Real Burgos: Result & Stats

La Granja

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Burgos

10/31/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 3Campo de Fútbol El Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Granja46%

×Draw25%

Real Burgos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La GranjaExpected goals in this matchReal Burgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.17

La Granja

1.55

Real Burgos

1.17

La Granja creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.20

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

La Granja

1.20

Real Burgos

1.00

allows per match

La Granja

1.33

Real Burgos

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Granja+0.00on par

Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Granja ↓

Real Burgos →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

La Granja or draw

71%

La Granja or Real Burgos

75%

Draw or Real Burgos

54%

Winning margin

La Granja wins by 2+

23%

Real Burgos wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

La Granja 1+ goals

79%

La Granja 2+ goals

46%

La Granja 3+ goals

20%

Real Burgos 1+ goals

69%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

33%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

La Granja (draw refunded)

62%

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Granja at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Granja attack 1.20 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.55

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + La Granja defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

La Granja scores more

46%

level

25%

Real Burgos scores more

29%

La Granja at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "La Granja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Granja 1–2 Real Burgos

Real Burgos beat La Granja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Hospital in San Ildefonso.

La Granja vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: La Granja 1–2 Real Burgos