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Real Burgos vs Gimnástica Segoviana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Burgos
Real Burgos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 16Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Real Burgos19%
×Draw26%
Gimnástica Segoviana54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Burgos
0.78
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.50

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 92% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 28 away

creates per match

Real Burgos
1.00
Gimnástica Segoviana
1.68

allows per match

Real Burgos
1.32
Gimnástica Segoviana
0.57

finishing

Real Burgos+0.00on par
Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Burgos ↓

Gimnástica Segoviana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Burgos or draw
46%
Real Burgos or Gimnástica Segoviana
74%
Draw or Gimnástica Segoviana
81%

Winning margin

Real Burgos wins by 2+
6%
Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Real Burgos 1+ goals
54%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
18%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
4%
Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
78%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
44%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Real Burgos (draw refunded)
26%
Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Burgos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Gimnástica Segoviana away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 1.68 + Real Burgos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Burgos scores more
19%
level
26%
Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
54%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Burgos vs Gimnástica Segoviana

Gimnástica Segoviana beat Real Burgos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.