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Gimnástica Segoviana vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Gimnástica Segoviana
Gimnástica Segoviana
CANC
00:00
Real Burgos
Real Burgos
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 37Estadio Municipal de La Albuera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Gimnástica Segoviana70%
×Draw18%
Real Burgos12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimnástica Segoviana
2.21
Real Burgos
0.79

Gimnástica Segoviana creates 180% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

creates per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
2.52
Real Burgos
1.00

allows per match

Gimnástica Segoviana
0.59
Real Burgos
1.90

finishing

Gimnástica Segoviana+0.00on par
Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnástica Segoviana ↓

Real Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gimnástica Segoviana or draw
88%
Gimnástica Segoviana or Real Burgos
82%
Draw or Real Burgos
30%

Winning margin

Gimnástica Segoviana wins by 2+
45%
Real Burgos wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Gimnástica Segoviana 1+ goals
89%
Gimnástica Segoviana 2+ goals
65%
Gimnástica Segoviana 3+ goals
38%
Real Burgos 1+ goals
55%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
19%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Gimnástica Segoviana (draw refunded)
85%
Real Burgos (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnástica Segoviana at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnástica Segoviana attack 2.52 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.21

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Gimnástica Segoviana defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Gimnástica Segoviana scores more
70%
level
18%
Real Burgos scores more
12%

Gimnástica Segoviana at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Gimnástica Segoviana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gimnástica Segoviana vs Real Burgos — Match Preview

Gimnástica Segoviana face Real Burgos on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Gimnástica Segoviana host Real Burgos at Estadio Municipal de La Albuera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.