Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Burgos vs Cultural Cebrereña — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Burgos
Real Burgos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
11/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 4Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Real Burgos45%
×Draw26%
Cultural Cebrereña29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Burgos
1.44
Cultural Cebrereña
1.10

Real Burgos creates 31% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 16 away

creates per match

Real Burgos
1.00
Cultural Cebrereña
0.88

allows per match

Real Burgos
1.32
Cultural Cebrereña
1.88

finishing

Real Burgos+0.00on par
Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Burgos ↓

Cultural Cebrereña →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Burgos or draw
71%
Real Burgos or Cultural Cebrereña
74%
Draw or Cultural Cebrereña
55%

Winning margin

Real Burgos wins by 2+
22%
Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Real Burgos 1+ goals
76%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
42%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
18%
Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
67%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
30%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Real Burgos (draw refunded)
61%
Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Burgos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Cultural Cebrereña away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

Cultural Cebrereña attack 0.88 + Real Burgos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Burgos scores more
45%
level
26%
Cultural Cebrereña scores more
29%

Real Burgos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Burgos vs Cultural Cebrereña

Real Burgos beat Cultural Cebrereña 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.