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Cultural Cebrereña vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cultural Cebrereña
Cultural Cebrereña
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Burgos
Real Burgos
1/31/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 15Estadio El Mancho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Cultural Cebrereña47%
×Draw26%
Real Burgos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Cebrereña
1.45
Real Burgos
1.03

Cultural Cebrereña creates 41% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

creates per match

Cultural Cebrereña
1.00
Real Burgos
1.00

allows per match

Cultural Cebrereña
1.06
Real Burgos
1.90

finishing

Cultural Cebrereña+0.00on par
Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Cebrereña ↓

Real Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Cultural Cebrereña or draw
73%
Cultural Cebrereña or Real Burgos
74%
Draw or Real Burgos
53%

Winning margin

Cultural Cebrereña wins by 2+
23%
Real Burgos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cultural Cebrereña 1+ goals
77%
Cultural Cebrereña 2+ goals
42%
Cultural Cebrereña 3+ goals
18%
Real Burgos 1+ goals
64%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
28%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cultural Cebrereña (draw refunded)
64%
Real Burgos (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Cebrereña at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Cebrereña attack 1.00 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Cultural Cebrereña defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Cultural Cebrereña scores more
47%
level
26%
Real Burgos scores more
27%

Cultural Cebrereña at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cultural Cebrereña will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cultural Cebrereña 0 – 0 Real Burgos

Cultural Cebrereña and Real Burgos drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Mancho in Cebreros.