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Real Burgos vs Burgos Promesas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Burgos
Real Burgos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Burgos Promesas
Burgos Promesas
12/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 8Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Burgos30%
×Draw29%
Burgos Promesas40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Burgos
0.97
Burgos Promesas
1.17

Burgos Promesas creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 63 away

creates per match

Real Burgos
1.00
Burgos Promesas
1.02

allows per match

Real Burgos
1.32
Burgos Promesas
0.94

finishing

Real Burgos+0.00on par
Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Burgos ↓

Burgos Promesas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Real Burgos or draw
60%
Real Burgos or Burgos Promesas
71%
Draw or Burgos Promesas
70%

Winning margin

Real Burgos wins by 2+
11%
Burgos Promesas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Real Burgos 1+ goals
62%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
25%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
7%
Burgos Promesas 1+ goals
69%
Burgos Promesas 2+ goals
33%
Burgos Promesas 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Burgos (draw refunded)
43%
Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Burgos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Burgos Promesas away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.94 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Burgos Promesas attack 1.02 + Real Burgos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Burgos scores more
30%
level
29%
Burgos Promesas scores more
40%

Burgos Promesas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Burgos 1 – 1 Burgos Promesas

Real Burgos and Burgos Promesas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 5, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío in Burgos.