Burgos Promesas 4–1 Real Burgos: Result & Stats

Burgos Promesas

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Real Burgos

12/1/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 17Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Burgos Promesas55%

×Draw24%

Real Burgos21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burgos PromesasExpected goals in this matchReal Burgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

0.92

Burgos Promesas

1.67

Real Burgos

0.92

Burgos Promesas creates 82% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 30 away

1.45

creates per match

1.00

0.83

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Burgos Promesas

1.45

Real Burgos

1.00

allows per match

Burgos Promesas

0.83

Real Burgos

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burgos Promesas+0.00on par

Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burgos Promesas ↓

Real Burgos →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Burgos Promesas or draw

79%

Burgos Promesas or Real Burgos

76%

Draw or Real Burgos

45%

Winning margin

Burgos Promesas wins by 2+

30%

Real Burgos wins by 2+

Team goals

Burgos Promesas 1+ goals

81%

Burgos Promesas 2+ goals

50%

Burgos Promesas 3+ goals

23%

Real Burgos 1+ goals

60%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

23%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Burgos Promesas (draw refunded)

73%

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Burgos Promesas at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.83 · 64 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Burgos Promesas attack 1.45 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Burgos Promesas defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Burgos Promesas scores more

55%

level

24%

Real Burgos scores more

21%

Burgos Promesas at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Burgos Promesas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Real Burgos

Burgos Promesas beat Real Burgos 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Castañares in Burgos.

Burgos Promesas vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Burgos Promesas vs Real Burgos