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Real Burgos vs Bembibre — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Burgos
Real Burgos
CANC
00:00
Bembibre
Bembibre
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 32Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Burgos40%
×Draw28%
Bembibre32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Burgos
1.25
Bembibre
1.07

Real Burgos creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 110 away

creates per match

Real Burgos
1.00
Bembibre
0.82

allows per match

Real Burgos
1.32
Bembibre
1.51

finishing

Real Burgos+0.00on par
Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Burgos ↓

Bembibre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Burgos or draw
68%
Real Burgos or Bembibre
72%
Draw or Bembibre
60%

Winning margin

Real Burgos wins by 2+
18%
Bembibre wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Burgos 1+ goals
71%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
36%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
13%
Bembibre 1+ goals
66%
Bembibre 2+ goals
29%
Bembibre 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Burgos (draw refunded)
56%
Bembibre (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Burgos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Real Burgos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Burgos scores more
40%
level
28%
Bembibre scores more
32%

Real Burgos at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Real Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Burgos face Bembibre (Tercera División RFEF - Group 8)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 returns with Real Burgos hosting Bembibre. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Real Burgos host Bembibre at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.