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Bembibre vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Bembibre
Bembibre
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Real Burgos
Real Burgos
10/20/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 11Estadio La Devesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bembibre47%
×Draw26%
Real Burgos27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bembibre
1.48
Real Burgos
1.07

Bembibre creates 38% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bembibre
1.05
Real Burgos
1.00

allows per match

Bembibre
1.15
Real Burgos
1.90

finishing

Bembibre+0.00on par
Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bembibre ↓

Real Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bembibre or draw
73%
Bembibre or Real Burgos
74%
Draw or Real Burgos
53%

Winning margin

Bembibre wins by 2+
23%
Real Burgos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bembibre 1+ goals
77%
Bembibre 2+ goals
43%
Bembibre 3+ goals
19%
Real Burgos 1+ goals
66%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
29%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bembibre (draw refunded)
63%
Real Burgos (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bembibre at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bembibre attack 1.05 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.48

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Bembibre defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bembibre scores more
47%
level
26%
Real Burgos scores more
27%

Bembibre at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bembibre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bembibre vs Real Burgos

Real Burgos beat Bembibre 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 20, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio La Devesa in Bembibre.