Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Real Burgos vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Burgos
Real Burgos
CANC
22:00
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 41Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Burgos39%
×Draw27%
Becerril Campos34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Burgos
1.29
Becerril Campos
1.17

Real Burgos creates 10% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 97 away

creates per match

Real Burgos
1.00
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Real Burgos
1.32
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Real Burgos+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Burgos ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Real Burgos or draw
66%
Real Burgos or Becerril Campos
73%
Draw or Becerril Campos
61%

Winning margin

Real Burgos wins by 2+
18%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Real Burgos 1+ goals
72%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
37%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
14%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
69%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
33%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Real Burgos (draw refunded)
54%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Burgos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Real Burgos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Real Burgos scores more
39%
level
27%
Becerril Campos scores more
34%

Real Burgos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Real Burgos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Burgos host Becerril Campos

May 9, 2020: Real Burgos take on Becerril Campos in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Burgos host Becerril Campos at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.