Becerril Campos 3–2 Real Burgos: Result & Stats

Becerril Campos

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Burgos

12/29/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 20Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Becerril Campos46%

×Draw26%

Real Burgos29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Becerril CamposExpected goals in this matchReal Burgos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.13

Becerril Campos

1.50

Real Burgos

1.13

Becerril Campos creates 33% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 30 away

1.11

creates per match

1.00

1.26

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Becerril Campos

1.11

Real Burgos

1.00

allows per match

Becerril Campos

1.26

Real Burgos

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

Real Burgos →

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw

71%

Becerril Campos or Real Burgos

74%

Draw or Real Burgos

54%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+

23%

Real Burgos wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals

78%

Becerril Campos 2+ goals

44%

Becerril Campos 3+ goals

19%

Real Burgos 1+ goals

68%

Real Burgos 2+ goals

31%

Real Burgos 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)

62%

Real Burgos (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.50

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Becerril Campos scores more

46%

level

26%

Real Burgos scores more

29%

Becerril Campos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Becerril Campos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Becerril Campos vs Real Burgos

Becerril Campos beat Real Burgos 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mariano Haro in Becerril de Campos.

Becerril Campos vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Becerril Campos vs Real Burgos