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Real Burgos vs Atlético Tordesillas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Real Burgos
Real Burgos
CANC
00:00
Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 34Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Real Burgos31%
×Draw28%
Atlético Tordesillas40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Burgos
1.04
Atlético Tordesillas
1.23

Atlético Tordesillas creates 18% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 110 away

creates per match

Real Burgos
1.00
Atlético Tordesillas
1.13

allows per match

Real Burgos
1.32
Atlético Tordesillas
1.07

finishing

Real Burgos+0.00on par
Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Burgos ↓

Atlético Tordesillas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Real Burgos or draw
60%
Real Burgos or Atlético Tordesillas
72%
Draw or Atlético Tordesillas
69%

Winning margin

Real Burgos wins by 2+
12%
Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Real Burgos 1+ goals
65%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
28%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
9%
Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Burgos (draw refunded)
43%
Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Burgos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 31 matches

Atlético Tordesillas away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.04

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.13 + Real Burgos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Real Burgos scores more
31%
level
28%
Atlético Tordesillas scores more
40%

Atlético Tordesillas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Real Burgos host Atlético Tordesillas

March 29, 2020: Real Burgos take on Atlético Tordesillas in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Real Burgos host Atlético Tordesillas at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.