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Atlético Tordesillas vs Real Burgos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Atlético Tordesillas
Atlético Tordesillas
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Real Burgos
Real Burgos
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 13Estadio Las Salinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Atlético Tordesillas57%
×Draw24%
Real Burgos19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Tordesillas
1.65
Real Burgos
0.84

Atlético Tordesillas creates 96% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 30 away

creates per match

Atlético Tordesillas
1.41
Real Burgos
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Tordesillas
0.69
Real Burgos
1.90

finishing

Atlético Tordesillas+0.00on par
Real Burgos+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tordesillas ↓

Real Burgos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Atlético Tordesillas or draw
81%
Atlético Tordesillas or Real Burgos
76%
Draw or Real Burgos
43%

Winning margin

Atlético Tordesillas wins by 2+
31%
Real Burgos wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlético Tordesillas 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Tordesillas 2+ goals
49%
Atlético Tordesillas 3+ goals
23%
Real Burgos 1+ goals
57%
Real Burgos 2+ goals
21%
Real Burgos 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tordesillas (draw refunded)
75%
Real Burgos (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tordesillas at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.69 · 110 matches

Real Burgos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tordesillas attack 1.41 + Real Burgos defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.65

Real Burgos attack 1.00 + Atlético Tordesillas defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Atlético Tordesillas scores more
57%
level
24%
Real Burgos scores more
19%

Atlético Tordesillas at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Atlético Tordesillas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Tordesillas 0 – 3 Real Burgos

Real Burgos beat Atlético Tordesillas 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Las Salinas in Tordesillas.