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Real Brasília W vs Atlético Mineiro W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Real Brasília W
Real Brasília W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Atlético Mineiro W
Atlético Mineiro W
5/11/2024Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Real Brasília W50%
×Draw25%
Atlético Mineiro W25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Brasília W
1.63
Atlético Mineiro W
1.07

Real Brasília W creates 52% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

creates per match

Real Brasília W
1.22
Atlético Mineiro W
1.03

allows per match

Real Brasília W
1.11
Atlético Mineiro W
2.03

finishing

Real Brasília W+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Brasília W ↓

Atlético Mineiro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Brasília W or draw
75%
Real Brasília W or Atlético Mineiro W
75%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro W
50%

Winning margin

Real Brasília W wins by 2+
27%
Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Real Brasília W 1+ goals
80%
Real Brasília W 2+ goals
48%
Real Brasília W 3+ goals
22%
Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)
67%
Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Brasília W at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.11 · 37 matches

Atlético Mineiro W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Brasília W attack 1.22 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.63

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.03 + Real Brasília W defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Real Brasília W scores more
50%
level
25%
Atlético Mineiro W scores more
25%

Real Brasília W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Real Brasília W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Brasília W vs Atlético Mineiro W

Real Brasília W beat Atlético Mineiro W 3-1 in Brasileiro Women on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Ciro Machado do Espírito Santo in Vila Planalto, Distrito Federal.