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Atlético Mineiro W vs Real Brasília W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Atlético Mineiro W
Atlético Mineiro W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Real Brasília W
Real Brasília W
3/26/2023Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 5Arena Vera Cruz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Atlético Mineiro W45%
×Draw25%
Real Brasília W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Mineiro W
1.56
Real Brasília W
1.22

Atlético Mineiro W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 40 away

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro W
1.04
Real Brasília W
0.82

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro W
1.63
Real Brasília W
2.08

finishing

Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par
Real Brasília W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro W ↓

Real Brasília W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro W or draw
70%
Atlético Mineiro W or Real Brasília W
75%
Draw or Real Brasília W
55%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+
23%
Real Brasília W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals
79%
Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals
46%
Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals
21%
Real Brasília W 1+ goals
70%
Real Brasília W 2+ goals
34%
Real Brasília W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)
60%
Real Brasília W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro W at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

Real Brasília W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.04 + Real Brasília W defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.56

Real Brasília W attack 0.82 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Atlético Mineiro W scores more
45%
level
25%
Real Brasília W scores more
30%

Atlético Mineiro W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Atlético Mineiro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Atlético Mineiro W 1–0 Real Brasília W

Atlético Mineiro W beat Real Brasília W 1-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Vera Cruz in Betim, Minas Gerais.