Real Betis W 4–3 FC Levante Badalona W

Real Betis W

FT

4 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

FC Levante Badalona W

Carla Armengol 58'

Naima García 45+3'

Nuria Ligero 45'

Melanie Serrano 40' (OG)

Cristina Baudet 65'

Ana González 53' (pen)

Melanie Serrano 37'

11/2/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 8Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Real Betis W44%

×Draw25%

FC Levante Badalona W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis WExpected goals in this matchFC Levante Badalona W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.25

Real Betis W

1.52

FC Levante Badalona W

1.25

Real Betis W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 60 away

1.10

creates per match

0.88

1.63

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Real Betis W

1.10

FC Levante Badalona W

0.88

allows per match

Real Betis W

1.63

FC Levante Badalona W

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis W+0.00on par

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis W ↓

FC Levante Badalona W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Real Betis W or draw

69%

Real Betis W or FC Levante Badalona W

75%

Draw or FC Levante Badalona W

56%

Winning margin

Real Betis W wins by 2+

22%

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Real Betis W 1+ goals

78%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

45%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

20%

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

71%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

36%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

58%

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis W at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 102 matches

FC Levante Badalona W away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis W attack 1.10 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Levante Badalona W attack 0.88 + Real Betis W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Real Betis W scores more

44%

level

25%

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

31%

Real Betis W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Betis W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Elena Julve

FC Levante Badalona W · M

7.9

Match Events

7'

Ana Gonzalez

37'

Melanie Serrano

40'

Melanie SerranoOwn goal

45'

Nuria Ligero↳ Rosa Márquez

45+3'

Naima García↳ Carmen Álvarez

46'

Cristina Baudet← María Llompart

46'

Laura Martínez← Itziar Pinillos

53'

Esther Martín-Pozuelo

53'

Ghizlane Chebbak

53'

Ana GonzálezPenalty

56'

Carla Armengol← Carmen Álvarez

58'

Carla Armengol↳ Carolina Férez

61'

Estela Fernández Pablos

65'

Cristina Baudet↳ Elena Julve

66'

Julia Mora← Melanie Serrano

66'

R. Elloh← Lee Young-Ju

68'

Júlia Aguado← Carolina Férez

68'

T. Cameron← Naima García

78'

Irina Uribe← Elena Julve

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RealFC

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots21

1Corners8

8Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots21

3On Target6

5Off Target12

3Blocked3

9Inside Box14

2Outside Box7

Passing

41%Possession59%

358Total Passes513

237Accurate Passes405

66%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0