FC Levante Badalona W 1–2 Real Betis W

FC Levante Badalona W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Real Betis W

G. Chebbak 40'

T. Cameron 49'

Leles 45+3' (pen)

4/13/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 23Camp Municipal Les Planes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

FC Levante Badalona W44%

×Draw25%

Real Betis W32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Levante Badalona WExpected goals in this matchReal Betis W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.29

FC Levante Badalona W

1.56

Real Betis W

1.29

FC Levante Badalona W creates 21% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 104 away

1.02

creates per match

1.03

1.55

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.02

Real Betis W

1.03

allows per match

FC Levante Badalona W

1.55

Real Betis W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FC Levante Badalona W+0.00on par

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Levante Badalona W ↓

Real Betis W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

FC Levante Badalona W or draw

68%

FC Levante Badalona W or Real Betis W

75%

Draw or Real Betis W

56%

Winning margin

FC Levante Badalona W wins by 2+

22%

Real Betis W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FC Levante Badalona W 1+ goals

79%

FC Levante Badalona W 2+ goals

46%

FC Levante Badalona W 3+ goals

21%

Real Betis W 1+ goals

72%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

37%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

FC Levante Badalona W (draw refunded)

58%

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Levante Badalona W at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.55 · 60 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Levante Badalona W attack 1.02 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.56

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + FC Levante Badalona W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Levante Badalona W scores more

44%

level

25%

Real Betis W scores more

32%

FC Levante Badalona W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Levante Badalona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

Carolina Férez

Real Betis W · F

7.9

Match Events

27'

Rhiannon Roberts

40'

G. Chebbak↳ Julia Mora

45+3'

LelesPenalty

46'

Y. M'Rabet← D. Čonč

49'

T. Cameron↳ Carolina Férez

59'

Bárbara Latorre← Laura Martínez

63'

Rosa Márquez← Violeta Quiles

70'

Cristina Baudet← A. Lahmari

74'

María Carrión Leles

78'

Natalia Montilla← Gema Soliveres

81'

Carolina Férez

85'

Paula Vizoso

87'

Tang Jiali← G. Chebbak

89'

Paula Perea

90+1'

R. Núñez← T. Cameron

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCReal

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots12

8Corners3

16Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots12

7On Target6

5Off Target5

4Blocked1

6Inside Box9

10Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

397Total Passes257

267Accurate Passes144

67%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls14

0Yellow Cards5

2Offsides6

Match Recap: FC Levante Badalona W vs Real Betis W

Real Betis W beat FC Levante Badalona W 2-1 in Primera División Femenina on April 13, 2024.

Goals: G. Chebbak (40'), Leles (45+3' pen), T. Cameron (49').

FC Levante Badalona W controlled possession (61%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at Camp Municipal Les Planes in Sant Joan Despí.

FC Levante Badalona W vs Real Betis W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FC Levante Badalona W vs Real Betis W