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Real Betis W vs Edf Logrono W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Real Betis W
Real Betis W
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Edf Logrono W
Edf Logrono W
4/28/2019Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 29Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol (Sevilla)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Real Betis W45%
×Draw25%
Edf Logrono W30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis W
1.58
Edf Logrono W
1.26

Real Betis W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 57 away

creates per match

Real Betis W
1.14
Edf Logrono W
0.91

allows per match

Real Betis W
1.61
Edf Logrono W
2.02

finishing

Real Betis W+0.00on par
Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis W ↓

Edf Logrono W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Real Betis W or draw
70%
Real Betis W or Edf Logrono W
75%
Draw or Edf Logrono W
55%

Winning margin

Real Betis W wins by 2+
23%
Edf Logrono W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Real Betis W 1+ goals
79%
Real Betis W 2+ goals
47%
Real Betis W 3+ goals
21%
Edf Logrono W 1+ goals
72%
Edf Logrono W 2+ goals
36%
Edf Logrono W 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Real Betis W (draw refunded)
59%
Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.61 · 104 matches

Edf Logrono W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis W attack 1.14 + Edf Logrono W defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.58

Edf Logrono W attack 0.91 + Real Betis W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Betis W scores more
45%
level
25%
Edf Logrono W scores more
30%

Real Betis W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Betis W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Betis W vs Edf Logrono W

Real Betis W beat Edf Logrono W 3-2 in Primera División Femenina on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol (Sevilla).