Edf Logrono W 0–1 Real Betis W: Result & Stats

Edf Logrono W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Real Betis W

Ángela Sosa 78' (pen)

5/1/2021

Primera División Femenina · Round 28Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Edf Logrono W46%

×Draw24%

Real Betis W31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Edf Logrono WExpected goals in this matchReal Betis W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.38

Edf Logrono W

1.72

Real Betis W

1.38

Edf Logrono W creates 25% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 104 away

1.34

creates per match

1.03

1.72

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Edf Logrono W

1.34

Real Betis W

1.03

allows per match

Edf Logrono W

1.72

Real Betis W

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Edf Logrono W+0.00on par

Real Betis W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Edf Logrono W ↓

Real Betis W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Edf Logrono W or draw

69%

Edf Logrono W or Real Betis W

76%

Draw or Real Betis W

54%

Winning margin

Edf Logrono W wins by 2+

24%

Real Betis W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Edf Logrono W 1+ goals

82%

Edf Logrono W 2+ goals

51%

Edf Logrono W 3+ goals

25%

Real Betis W 1+ goals

75%

Real Betis W 2+ goals

40%

Real Betis W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Edf Logrono W (draw refunded)

60%

Real Betis W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Edf Logrono W at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.72 · 58 matches

Real Betis W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.10 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Edf Logrono W attack 1.34 + Real Betis W defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.72

Real Betis W attack 1.03 + Edf Logrono W defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Edf Logrono W scores more

46%

level

24%

Real Betis W scores more

31%

Edf Logrono W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Edf Logrono W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

I. Juan

50'

R. Otermin

56'

O. Altuve← Aixa García

63'

J. Luzuriaga Albelda

64'

Carol Marín← R. Elloh

68'

Bea Parra← Rosa Márquez

77'

I. Juan

77'

I. Juan

78'

L. Nyman← Chini Pizarro

78'

Ángela SosaPenalty

79'

C. Musongo← I. Guehai

88'

M. Valle

89'

D. Caracas

89'

L. Lundin

90+2'

Victoria Benitez← Mari Paz Vilas

Edf

Real

1

19

21

4

11

28

22

⚽

Sosa

17

▼

Márquez

10

▼

Vilas

14

Otermin

8

▼

1

5

22

28

17

▼

19

12

18

15

▼

Guehai

10

▼

Elloh

7

Luzuriaga

Manager: José Moncayo

64'▲Carol Marín←▼R. Elloh

78'▲L. Nyman←▼Chini Pizarro

79'▲C. Musongo←▼I. Guehai

Edf Logrono W substitutes

21Marín16Nyman27Musongo14Velázquez25Pascuet20Valderas4Cazalla13Longa8Méndez

Manager: Juan Carlos Amorós

56'▲O. Altuve←▼Aixa García

68'▲Bea Parra←▼Rosa Márquez

90+2'▲Victoria Benitez←▼Mari Paz Vilas

Real Betis W substitutes

9Altuve12Parra29Benitez13Dolan20Perarnau23Méndez