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Real Betis II vs Los Barrios — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Real Betis II
Real Betis II
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Los Barrios
Los Barrios
1/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 21Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Real Betis II74%
×Draw16%
Los Barrios10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Betis II
2.54
Los Barrios
0.84

Real Betis II creates 202% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 42 away

creates per match

Real Betis II
3.07
Los Barrios
0.90

allows per match

Real Betis II
0.79
Los Barrios
2.00

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par
Los Barrios+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Los Barrios →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw
90%
Real Betis II or Los Barrios
84%
Draw or Los Barrios
26%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+
52%
Los Barrios wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals
92%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
72%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
46%
Los Barrios 1+ goals
57%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
21%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)
88%
Los Barrios (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Los Barrios away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.00 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 3.07 + Los Barrios defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.54

Los Barrios attack 0.90 + Real Betis II defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Real Betis II scores more
74%
level
16%
Los Barrios scores more
10%

Real Betis II at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Real Betis II 5 – 1 Los Barrios

Real Betis II beat Los Barrios 5-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol in Sevilla.