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Los Barrios vs Real Betis II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Los Barrios
Los Barrios
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Betis II
Real Betis II
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2Estadio San Rafael

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Los Barrios27%
×Draw27%
Real Betis II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Los Barrios
1.00
Real Betis II
1.42

Real Betis II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 16 away

creates per match

Los Barrios
0.93
Real Betis II
1.75

allows per match

Los Barrios
1.09
Real Betis II
1.06

finishing

Los Barrios+0.00on par
Real Betis II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Los Barrios ↓

Real Betis II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Los Barrios or draw
53%
Los Barrios or Real Betis II
73%
Draw or Real Betis II
73%

Winning margin

Los Barrios wins by 2+
10%
Real Betis II wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Los Barrios 1+ goals
63%
Los Barrios 2+ goals
26%
Los Barrios 3+ goals
8%
Real Betis II 1+ goals
76%
Real Betis II 2+ goals
41%
Real Betis II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Los Barrios (draw refunded)
36%
Real Betis II (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Los Barrios at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

Real Betis II away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Los Barrios attack 0.93 + Real Betis II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.00

Real Betis II attack 1.75 + Los Barrios defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Los Barrios scores more
27%
level
27%
Real Betis II scores more
47%

Real Betis II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10: Los Barrios 0–0 Real Betis II

Los Barrios and Real Betis II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio San Rafael in Los Barrios.