Real Betis II 1–0 Linense: Result & Stats

Real Betis II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Linense

M. Mensah 12' (pen)

1/21/2024

League #878 · Group 4 - 19Ciudad Deportiva Luis de Sol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Real Betis II64%

×Draw25%

Linense11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Betis IIExpected goals in this matchLinense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

0.46

Real Betis II

1.53

Linense

0.46

Real Betis II creates 233% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

0.60

0.33

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Real Betis II

1.67

Linense

0.60

allows per match

Real Betis II

0.33

Linense

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Betis II+0.00on par

Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Betis II ↓

Linense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Real Betis II or draw

89%

Real Betis II or Linense

75%

Draw or Linense

36%

Winning margin

Real Betis II wins by 2+

35%

Linense wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Real Betis II 1+ goals

78%

Real Betis II 2+ goals

45%

Real Betis II 3+ goals

20%

Linense 1+ goals

37%

Linense 2+ goals

8%

Linense 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Real Betis II (draw refunded)

85%

Linense (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Betis II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

Linense away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Betis II attack 1.67 + Linense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Linense attack 0.60 + Real Betis II defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Real Betis II scores more

64%

level

25%

Linense scores more

11%

Real Betis II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Real Betis II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. MensahPenalty

63'

Berto Rosas← M. Mensah

63'

Enrique Fernández← Jesús Rodríguez

67'

Antonio Romero← Adri Peral

76'

Manu Morillo← Mateo Flores

76'

Pablo García← Yanis Senhadji

76'

Ángel Mancheño← Javi Pérez

76'

Dani Santafé← Cera

81'

Chema Moreno← Aridane

90+1'

Darío Germil← Carlos Reina

Real

Linense

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alberto González

63'▲Berto Rosas←▼M. Mensah

63'▲Enrique Fernández←▼Jesús Rodríguez

76'▲Manu Morillo←▼Mateo Flores

76'▲Pablo García←▼Yanis Senhadji

90+1'▲Darío Germil←▼Carlos Reina

Real Betis II substitutes

RosasFernándezMorilloGarcíaGermilVergazGarcía

Manager: Mere

67'▲Antonio Romero←▼Adri Peral

76'▲Ángel Mancheño←▼Javi Pérez

76'▲Dani Santafé←▼Cera

81'▲Chema Moreno←▼Aridane

Linense substitutes

RomeroMancheñoSantaféMorenoRomeroOrtizMonteverde